Globalisation is under assault, but it might yet survive

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Then came Mr Donald Trump with his trade wars and Brexiters with their slogan of taking back control. The Covid-19 pandemic that followed exposed the perils of over-dependence on global supply chains while the severe sanctions on Russia over the conflict in Ukraine are threatening to balkanise global finance. Alongside, the sharpening geopolitical tensions are sparking calls for onshoring production and "friendshoring" trade.

many services we consume locally are becoming global. A Grab taxi ride in Singapore, for example, is a multinational endeavour involving a Singaporean driver, a Korean car, and software developed in California and managed from a back office in Bangalore

countries will prioritise resilience over efficiency. They will, for example, endeavour to become self-sufficient in a few essential items like food, medicines and vaccines. Such insurance certainly helps, but it comes at a cost. The escalating cost-benefit calculus will prevent deglobalisation from going too far.

Globalisation might still unravel, but that might come to pass not because of technological or economic backlash but because of political headwinds. There was once a hope that as authoritarian regimes get intertwined with open, free market societies through economic and trade ties, they will see the value of democracy and turn less authoritarian. The shared interests will then put the world onto a virtuous cycle of peace and prosperity.

Qn: Is globalisation to be welcomed or feared today? (Cam. 2019)