India's daily virus deaths forecast to rise till mid-May

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The trajectory of countries' daily virus deaths is considered the best indicator of the progression of the pandemic, although there is generally a 17-to 21-day lag between infections and deaths

The projection model's numbers differ from officially reported figures as they take into account potential under-reporting in some regions and average some data.

In all, India has reported more than 17 million coronavirus cases and over 195,000 deaths. But health experts say the true figures are likely to be much higher....surveys suggest India may be detecting less than 5 per cent of its total infected population....."This means that the number of cases that are being detected needs to be multiplied by 20 or more to get the number of infections that are occurring in India

Such projections may be reliable only in the short term...Any excessively precise prediction, of a peak within just a five-day window, would ignore the many uncertainties associated with the inputs to any such calculation.

Qn: How reliable are statistics as a guide for planning the future? (Cam. 2020)